Abstract:

Hopea reticulata is an endemic specie of China and the second-class national key protected plant. It is only naturally distributed in Ganshiling Region where is at the junction of Ya County and Baoting County in Hainan. But it has a high population density and forms a single dominant tropical rainforest with itself as advantage. In order to investigate the natural population of H. reticulata in Hainan Ganshiling, we drew the population survival curve and described the features of the population structure by means of establishing the static life table of this population, as well as conducting the quantitative study on its future development trend with the use of dynamic prediction of the population quantity and time series analysis. The results showed that the development of H. reticulata population in Hainan Ganshiling was stable, which is the growth form population. The analysis of population static life table indicated that the individual death rate of H. reticulata population in the stage of Ⅱ age-class sapling was low, and the death rate in the stage of Ⅲ age-class medium-sized tree was the highest; the population survival curve tended to Deevey -Ⅱ type; the curve of death rate and disappearance rate showed a consistent variation trend. The survival analysis showed that the H. reticulata population had the characteristics of well growth in the early stage, high competition pressure in the middle stage and gentle growth tendency in the late stage. The result of time series prediction indicated that the well-developed H. reticulata population had better stability of resistance, once going through the transitional period from the stage of Ⅲ age-class medium-sized tree to the stage of Ⅳ age-class grown tree, the population could develop very steadily. Therefore, it is suggested that on the basis of establishing nature reserves at present, the protection of middle-aged plants of H. reticulata should be strengthened to improve the survival rate and enable more individuals to enter the growth and development stage of the next age class, so as to ensure the normal renewal of the population.

Key words: Hopea reticulata, population structure, static life table, survival curve, time sequence prediction